Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has stalled near a key level, which could determine whether the bear market is officially over.

Where Is BTC’s ‘Line In The Sand?‘

According to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average is the key level to break before a potential new bull cycle.

Cowen sees similarities between the current rally and 2018, when Bitcoin rallied more than 40% from its summer low before stalling at the 50-week MA.

Cowen stressed that stalling does not necessarily mean rejection, as previous bull-market transitions spent weeks around the level before breaking higher.

Sustained weekly closes above the 50-week MA would make Cowen abandon his bearish bias.

Until then, he believes historical precedent leaves the door open for another decline later this year.

Could Bitcoin See One More Q4 Low?

Cowen also noted that during the previous three cycles, Bitcoin’s final bear-market bottom arrived after the U.S. midterm elections.

Another reason for his skepticism is that Bitcoin’s decisive recoveries above the 50-week MA following previous bear markets occurred during pre-halving years rather than midterm years.

Still, Cowen isn’t recommending investors wait indefinitely for another crash.

His strategy remains to gradually accumulate after the summer low and accept the possibility of another Q4 decline, noting that purchases made before the final bottoms in 2018 and 2022 still proved attractive over longer time horizons.

Binance Reserves Flash Warning

On-chain data adds another potential obstacle around $80,000.

CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s Bitcoin reserves rising to around 687,000 BTC, their highest level of 2026.

Rising exchange balances can indicate holders are preparing to sell, hedge or use Bitcoin as collateral, although wallet reorganizations, custody transfers and market-making activity can also influence reserve figures.

The combination leaves Bitcoin facing a significant test: a 50-week MA that has historically separated bull markets from bear-market rallies, alongside potentially greater available supply on Binance.

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