When it comes to the stock market, there are periods of seasonality. One of the most well-known seasonal trends in recent years has been September being the worst month for broad market indexes. Market experts point to trends suggesting this year is an exception to the rule.
Ryan Detrick on September Trends
While some investors may want to channel Green Day and say, “Wake Me Up When September Ends,” market expert Ryan Detrick has good news about what midterm years tend to bring.
"The four best September returns ever all took place in a midterm year and five of the top seven," Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, recently tweeted.
Here are the best September returns since 1950:
- 2010: +8.8%
- 1954: +8.3%
- 1998: +6.2%
- 1950: +5.6%
- 1996: +5.4%
- 1997: +5.3%
- 1958: +4.8%
- 1995: +4.0%
- 1973: +4.0%
- 1988: +4.0%
The bolded years above are midterm election years (2010, 1954, 1998, 1950, 1958) and represent some of the best September returns for the market since 1950.
Another tweet from Detrick shows that the 10 best September returns since 1950 usually came when the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), was already up year-to-date through August.
"The 10 best Septembers ever usually saw green YTD coming into them. Sure, we could fall this September, but a large drop isn’t likely and odds favor this surprise midterm year rally continuing."
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up 12.6% year-to-date in 2026 as of the time of writing.
Here are the 10 best Septembers, with the YTD return through August and eventual September return:
- 2010: -5.9% through August, +8.8% September
- 1954: +20.2% through August, +8.3% September
- 1998: -1.4% through August, +6.2% September
- 1950: +9.7% through August, +5.6% September
- 1996: +5.9% through August, +5.4% September
- 1997: +21.4% through August, +5.3% September
- 1958: +19.4% through August, +4.8% September
- 1995: +22.3% through August, +4.0% September
- 1973: -11.7% through August, +4.0% September
- 1988: +5.8% through August, +4.0% September
Jay Woods on September Trends
Detrick isn’t the only one showing positive trends for September, suggesting 2026 could be an exception to the rule.
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods shared several trends to watch in a weekly newsletter.
Woods shared that over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.5% loss in September. The month ranks last among the 12 calendar months for return over the last 20 years and since 1980.
The market expert shares that recent history shows a reversal.
"Over the last 20 years, 11 of the 20 Septembers finished higher, giving the month a 55% winning percentage," Woods said.
The positive Septembers of the last 20 years were up an average of 3.0%. The trouble was that the average loss on down years was 4.8%.
"There have been plenty of perfectly healthy Septembers, including gains in each of the last two years. However, the downside outliers have been much more severe."
Woods said the three worst Septembers since 2000 also all happened during bear markets (2002, 2008, 2022) and this year is far from a bear market with current year-to-date gains.
While September is statistically the worst month, recent trends show that 2026 could be different.
Photo: Shutterstock
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