Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares closed out August on a tear, up 32% from the month’s lows and reclaiming ground lost since the rocket-and-AI company’s rocky post-IPO summer.
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SpaceX stock ended August at $143.49, up from lows near $108 in early August, according to Benzinga Pro data. The rally added back an estimated $450-$500 billion in market value, though the stock remains roughly $1 trillion below its $2.9 trillion peak hit June 16, just days after its record-setting $75 billion IPO.
The turnaround traces to Aug. 6, when SpaceX’s first post-IPO lock-up expiry freed roughly 911 million shares — about 7% of shares outstanding — for trading, a moment that had investors concerned about a downturn.
Rather than triggering a sell-off, the stock soared 35% in five sessions, adding roughly $500 billion in market cap.
Earnings Beat, AI Jitters
SpaceX second-quarter earnings release on Aug. 4 gave the rally a boost despite an initial after-hours stumble: revenue jumped 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, beating estimates, even as investors fretted over AI-segment spending.
Argus Research upgraded shares to Buy from Hold on Aug. 7 with a $160 price target, saying not to “bet against Musk,” per CNBC.
NVIDIA Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) disclosure of a 122.8 million-share, roughly $21 billion stake in SpaceX added another leg to the story, lending AI-infrastructure credibility to the rally. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Harvard University and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) also disclosed large stakes.
Morgan Stanley reiterated an overweight rating and $300 price target on Aug. 26, tied to SpaceX’s $100 billion Louisiana spaceport plan, with analyst Adam Jonas writing that “the implied valuation for SpaceX’s AI business at the current price is, in our opinion, extremely conservative.”
Not everyone’s convinced the rally has legs. SPCX trades at roughly 66 times sales — a steep multiple even for a company growing revenue near triple digits.
What’s Next: More Unlocks Ahead
Wall Street’s average price target sits near $226, implying more upside — but after a month this volatile, traders are bracing for the next lock-up test in September.
More share unlocks are already on the calendar: roughly 319 million additional shares became eligible for trading on Aug. 20, with another 700 million or so slated for release each month through October.
How SPCX absorbs that fresh supply may determine whether August’s comeback turns into a durable trend or just another swing in a stock that’s already lived several lifetimes since its June debut.
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