Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) said Tuesday that its Full Self-Driving Supervised software was 4.1 times less likely to be involved in a collision than manually driven Teslas in Europe, as the EV maker pushes for wider approval across the continent.
Tesla Europe said in a post on X that the claim was based on roughly 102 million kilometers of driving between April and August across five countries. The company says an EU vote that could clear FSD Supervised for broader use may come as soon as Oct. 6.
Tesla Puts 102 Million Kilometers Behind Its Case
More than 70,000 customers now use FSD Supervised across the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania, with the system logging more than 1 million kilometers of driving each day.
Cars using FSD were involved in three highway collisions and nine non-highway collisions, compared with 137 and 490 respectively for manually driven Teslas, Reuters reported Tuesday. Because the two groups logged different amounts of mileage, Tesla compared collisions per kilometer driven, which it said made FSD 4.1 times less likely to be involved in a collision.
The Netherlands provisionally approved FSD Supervised in April, with four other countries following. Wider EU approval would require backing from 15 member states representing 65% of the bloc’s population.
The outcome is far from certain. France and Sweden have already raised concerns over issues including speeding and driver supervision.
Tesla’s Safety Data Has Limits
Tesla also published a safety dashboard previously shared with European regulators, covering more than 230,000 driving scenarios.
Tesla cautions that the comparison with manual driving is observational and cannot fully account for factors such as weather, traffic or when drivers choose to activate FSD.
Dutch regulator RDW separately tested the system for more than 3,000 hours before approval and stresses that FSD Supervised is not self-driving. Drivers remain responsible for the car.
Prediction Traders Still Doubt Full Autonomy
Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Tesla’s next steps in autonomy.
They currently give the company about a 17% chance of launching a public driverless robotaxi service in California by Dec. 31.
Traders are also skeptical that Tesla will hit its Cybercab price target this year. Polymarket puts the odds of Tesla selling one for $30,000 or less by year-end at just 12%.
European approval would mark progress for Tesla’s supervised system, but prediction markets suggest traders remain skeptical about how quickly that progress will translate into fully driverless vehicles and commercial Cybercab sales.
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