The Middle East conflict is creating an unusual earnings windfall for oil producers far from the battlefield, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions push crude prices higher — and in some cases let producers command outright premiums to Brent. Since the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained a waterway that normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, keeping crude prices elevated.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:OXY) posted a worldwide realized oil price of $96.78 per barrel, up 38% quarter-over-quarter, driving adjusted EPS of $2.40, up from $0.39 a year ago, and free cash flow of roughly $3 billion. Still, CFO Sunil Mathew flagged risk from international volumes, saying the Middle East situation “is fluid.”
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) realized $62.33 per barrel, up 36% year-over-year, even with its Qatar LNG facility largely shut in during the quarter. CEO Ryan Lance called the Strait bottleneck “not a resource problem, it’s a connectivity problem,” and has argued elsewhere that gas-market “headwinds have become tailwinds.”
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EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) posted record adjusted EPS of $5.07 and $2.8 billion in free cash flow, with minimal direct war exposure aside from Bahrain, where COO Jeffrey Leitzell said: “operations have been intermittent due to the ongoing conflict.”
Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) saw the sharpest sequential jump: realized oil price rose to $96.82 per barrel from $73.47 in the first quarter. With essentially zero Middle East production, it’s close to a pure-play beneficiary of the price effect, and it used the cash to push output past 1 million barrels per day and double its buyback authorization to $16 billion.
Hibiscus Petroleum (OTC:HIBPF) is capturing an outright premium to Brent. Analysts estimated a roughly 9.6% realized premium in the previous quarter, with management guiding toward 13%-18%. April-May offtakes averaged around $120 per barrel.
While producers with Middle East assets remain exposed to operational risks, the earnings math is increasingly favorable for companies insulated from the Strait. The Energy Information Administration does not expect Middle East oil output to fully normalize until early 2027.
Meanwhile, Diamondback Energy, EOG Resources, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, and Hibiscus Petroleum have seen their stocks surge since the start of the Iran war amid rising crude oil prices. Year-to-date, ConocoPhillips has soared about 45%, EOG jumped around 43%, Occidental climbed nearly 43.82%, and Diamondback has surged about 35% on U.S. stock exchanges. Meanwhile, Hibiscus has soared about 50% on the Malaysian exchange, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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