Prediction markets currently assign more than a 50% probability to the S&P 500 crossing 8,000 by year-end amid President Donald Trump’s optimism that the stock market is headed higher.
S&P 500 on Track to Breach 8,000?
Punters on Kalshi price the possibility at 51.8%, down from a yearly peak of 79% last month but still well above the 19% recorded at the start of 2026.
Similarly, the odds of the S&P 500 hitting 8,200 or higher stood at 27%, down from 54% in mid-August. The possibility of the market barometer breaching 8,400 stood at nearly 16%.
Meanwhile, markets assigned a 17% chance that the S&P 500 would close above 8,000 on Dec. 31, compared with a 13% chance it would close between 7,600 and 7,799.99.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. and serves as the barometer of overall U.S. economic health.
Year to date, it has rallied 12%, while growth over the past month has eased to 0.87%. The index reached a record close of 7,798.99 in mid-August. It rose 0.46% to close at 7,666.60 on Wednesday.
Notably, JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,800 last month, citing a strong earnings season and AI momentum.
Trump Confident About Stock Market Momentum
The odds come as Trump voiced optimism that “the stock market will go up” despite the ongoing war in Iran.
He added that the market has kept hitting new records and it would likely be even higher if it weren’t affected by the war.
Notably, Trump’s approval ratings have dipped sharply in 2026, with some polls placing his overall approval as low as 32% to 34%.
Surveys conducted in August found Americans now trust Democrats more than Republicans to manage the economy.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Image via Shutterstock/ Joey Sussman
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