Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan says Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) has gone from an artificial-intelligence also-ran to a credible Anthropic rival within months, crediting its $60 billion Cursor acquisition and expanding compute infrastructure.
Cursor Deal Transforms SpaceX’s AI Business
"The company’s doing an incredible job with AI," Horan told CNBC’s Power Lunch hosts Kelly Evans and Brian Sullivan. "Six months ago, their AI business was almost, people thought, dying. The large language models of Grok were nowhere." He called Cursor "an absolute game changer." Cursor officially joined SpaceX on Aug. 14.
Horan said Cursor’s agentic coding activity gives SpaceX data on "what works, what doesn’t work and all the logic behind that," helping improve Grok and other applications. He said SpaceX is targeting a $100 billion revenue run rate by year-end, with about 70% tied to AI, and could reach $120 billion to $130 billion next year.
"I think Grok Bot is about to go viral," Horan said, while people working on Grok 5 believe it will be "transformational."
Oppenheimer Raises Target On AI Momentum
Oppenheimer reinforced that thesis Wednesday, maintaining its ‘Outperform’ rating and raising its SpaceX price target to $280 from $250, implying nearly 99% upside from around $141. The firm said SpaceX’s vertically integrated AI platform combines proprietary data, capital, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs and rapid infrastructure deployment.
Oppenheimer raised long-term revenue estimates roughly 10%, said Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin chips could pay for themselves within a year, and estimated SpaceX could capture 100% of revenue from software such as Cursor and Grok, versus roughly 50% when it acts as a wholesale AI infrastructure provider.
SpaceX already leases substantial compute to Anthropic and Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google. The Anthropic deal includes $1.25 billion in monthly payments through May 2029, subject to a 90-day termination provision.
Anthropic Rivalry Reframes SpaceX Valuation Story
The rivalry matters more as Anthropic and OpenAI approach public markets. Reuters reported Anthropic plans to unveil its IPO prospectus after Labor Day and could list in late September or early October. OpenAI has also confidentially filed, though it has not committed to a listing date.
"At a $2 trillion valuation, they really have to grow into that," Horan said, arguing $300 billion to $400 billion of revenue within two to three years could support a $3 trillion to $4 trillion market capitalization.
"SpaceX really is now a competitor to Anthropic," Horan said. "It really wasn’t one… three-four-five months ago, and I think the world is waking up to that."
Benzinga edge rankings indicate SpaceX’s stock has a positive price trend across the short term but an unfavorable showing in the medium and long term.
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