Cryptocurrency punters don’t see a long-lasting agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the ongoing war, even as reports say President Donald Trump is privately weighing a declaration that the conflict is over.
No Resolution in Sight?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket assigns only a 17% chance that the U.S. ends the naval blockade of Iran by Sept. 30, down from 80% a month ago.
Similarly, the probability of the blockade ending by Oct. 31 fell from 87% to 36%, while the chance of resolution by year-end 2026 dropped from 90% to 60%.
The probability of a final nuclear deal between the two countries also stayed low, at 3% by Oct. 31 and 11% by the end of the year.
US-Iran Deadlock Continues
The odds shift as Trump is reportedly considering ending the conflict with Iran. “I don’t think it will [war] be very much longer … I don’t know how much more they [Iran] can take,” Trump said earlier in the week. week.
That said, the U.S. military still maintains a presence of about 50,000 troops in the region, ready to launch larger offensive operations if needed and to give Trump additional options.
U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers over the weekend, ending a month-long pause in hostilities. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they targeted U.S. bases in Jordan.
The U.S. has accused Tehran of violating the June memorandum of understanding by attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington also reimposed the naval blockade against Iranian ports.
Image via Shutterstock/ Below the Sky
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