Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) shares fell roughly 4% Friday, eroding part of Thursday’s 10.1% surge after a stronger-than-expected jobs report revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike and knocked Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) below $80,000.
The stock closed at $192.70 Thursday as easing rate fears fueled a rally across crypto and other risk assets.
Hot Jobs Cool Thursday’s Crypto Rally
The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, far more than expected. The BLS also revised July payrolls to show a modest gain instead of a decline.
Treasury yields jumped as traders raised expectations for a September hike. Bitcoin, which had climbed above $81,000 following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller Thursday, fell back below $80,000.
Polymarket traders raised the odds of a September rate hike to roughly 50% from around 40% before the jobs report, with more than $93 million traded on the market.
Coinbase Wants All the ‘Shelves Stocked’
CEO Brian Armstrong has argued that Coinbase is becoming much more than a Bitcoin trading platform. On the company’s July 30 earnings call, he said Coinbase was “no longer a bet just on the price of Bitcoin” and described its Everything Exchange strategy as keeping “all the shelves stocked” so it can capture activity wherever traders move next.
Coinbase said 88% of Q2 net revenue came from outside Bitcoin spot trading, while prediction-market activity more than doubled from the previous quarter and annualized revenue crossed $100 million.
CFO Alesia Haas said early data suggests prediction-market users are adding to spot trading rather than simply shifting activity away from crypto. That matters because trading remains a major part of the business, with Coinbase generating $599.2 million in transaction revenue during the quarter.
Wall Street is still split on how quickly the newer businesses can change that picture. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $196 on Aug. 25 and kept a Buy rating, while Barclays remains Underweight with a $95 target, according to Benzinga’s latest analyst ratings.
Higher Rates Cut Both Ways for Coinbase
Friday’s renewed rate-hike debate matters to Coinbase in a less obvious way. Higher rates can pressure Bitcoin and crypto trading, but they can also help the company’s stablecoin business.
Coinbase generated $292.1 million in stablecoin revenue in Q2, down from $308.9 million a year earlier. Lower average interest rates reduced revenue by $55.9 million, partly offset by higher USDC balances held by customers, the company said in its quarterly filing.
In its 2025 annual filing, Coinbase estimated that a hypothetical 150-basis-point change in average rates, applied to daily USDC reserve balances held by Circle, would have changed annual stablecoin revenue by $540.3 million.
August CPI arrives Sept. 11, five days before the Fed’s next rate decision, meaning the debate that drove Coinbase higher Thursday and lower Friday could shift again quickly.
For Coinbase, higher rates cut both ways: they may weigh on crypto prices and trading activity while improving the economics of one of its largest recurring revenue streams.
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