Prediction markets are increasingly converging on the first quarter of 2027 as the likely time when a company will formally announce it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence.
AGI in 2027?
As of this writing, Kalshi prices in a 62% chance that any company, public or private, makes a formal announcement before April 1, 2027, up from 32% the day before. The odds climbed to a record high of 72% before easing slightly.
Moreover, the probability that OpenAI would declare it had achieved AGI before the end of 2026 stood at 24.7%, while the odds of such a declaration occurring in 2027 were higher, at 50%.
OpenAI to Lead the Way?
Excitement has mounted after Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang declared that artificial general intelligence has arrived with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra.
OpenAI President Greg Brockman shared Huang’s post and said the company is "now moving into the AGI era."
Put simply, AGI is a hypothetical computer program or machine that can learn, think and solve any intellectual task that a human can.
OpenAI has released the model to a select group of organizations and plans a rollout to all ChatGPT users gradually.
Sharif Shameem, who works on the OpenAI Labs team, shared a video of Astra completing all 48 levels of Neal. fun’s famous “I’m Not a Robot” game.
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