U.S. stock futures are broadly lower early Tuesday as Wall Street returns from the long Labor Day weekend, facing historical post-holiday headwinds and surging oil prices.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bearish for the Sept. 8 trading session, with the “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 8?” contract reflecting just a 28% chance of a higher open.

Sept 8 Polymarket Odds For S&P 500 Opening

Why That Number Matters

Traders are navigating a historically difficult trading day alongside massive geopolitical pressures:

  • Post-Labor Day Slump: History is weighing heavily on trader sentiment, as the Tuesday immediately following Labor Day has seen a decline for the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 for nine consecutive years.
  • Lower Index Futures: Equity futures reflect this pessimistic seasonality. Dow Jones futures dropped 0.77%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.24%, and Russell 2000 futures slipped 0.49%, though Nasdaq 100 futures managed a slight 0.16% gain.
  • Geopolitics & Soaring Oil: The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to roil energy markets. President Donald Trump claimed that gas prices will fall “precipitously” to below $2 a gallon once the U.S. wins the war. However, current prices remain highly elevated, with Brent crude futures jumping to $98.65 a barrel, up 1.70%, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbing to $94.06 a barrel, higher by 2.82%.

Market Outlook & Economic Focus

Investors are shifting their focus to upcoming economic data that could sway the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. All eyes are on the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday. Ahead of that, the market will monitor Apple Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) highly anticipated product release event on Wednesday, which is expected to feature new iPhone 18 models. Tuesday’s earnings docket includes after-the-bell reports from Casey’s General Stores Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY), GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME), ServiceTitan Inc. (NASDAQ:TTAN), and Braze Inc. (NASDAQ:BRZE).

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Sept. 4 Polymarket contract resolved “Down,” recording $86,866 in total trading volume.

On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. The SPY was down 0.39% to $770.19, while the QQQ advanced by 0.18% to $718.96. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.53% lower at $534.08.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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