Military action in Iran started back in February. While the strikes on the country have led to higher oil prices, the stock market has remained resilient and is up 13% six months later. A market expert shares that this is far more common than people would expect.
Stock Market History with Recent Wars
With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) trading near record highs, there are many questions as to what happens next. The historically bad month of September, higher gas prices and continued military action have some investors spooked.
The good news is that history shows strong returns during and after military action.
A chart shared by Creative Planning Chief Market Strategist Charlie Bilello looks at 23 military actions from the United States dating back to the attack on Pearl Harbor and including the attack on Iran in February of this year.
"The best we can say in studying past military conflicts: with the passage of time, the stock market has tended to rise – and the more time that has passed, the more it has risen," Bilello tweeted.
Bilello lays out several reasons why this may be the case, including the economy and earnings often growing over the long run, even during military conflicts. There is also the fact that for the United States, there are end dates to the conflicts.
"All wars eventually come to an end," he notes.
Here is a look at the S&P 500 returns during the five most recent military conflicts.
| Military Conflict | Start Date | S&P 500 3 Months Later | S&P 500 6 Months Later | S&P 500 1 Year Later | S&P 500 3 Years Later |
| Proxy War in Ukraine | 02/24/2022 | -8% | -1% | -6% | +46% |
| Financial & Military Aid – Gaza | 10/07/2023 | +9% | +22% | +34% | N/A |
| Strikes Against Houthi Targets – Yemen | 03/15/2025 | +6% | +18% | +19% | N/A |
| Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites | 06/22/2025 | +13% | +15% | +31% | N/A |
| Iran War | 02/28/2026 | +10% | +13% | N/A | N/A |
Looking at the entire 23 military conflicts from Bilello’s chart, investors will notice that the S&P 500 was down seven times over the three months after a conflict began and down five times over the six months after a conflict began.
Looking further out, the S&P 500 was down four times over the course of a year after a conflict. But of the 23 most recent conflicts, there has been only one time when the S&P 500 was down three, five, and 10 years from the beginning, and it was the same conflict.
The conflict in question is the US entering the Kosovo War, beginning on March 24, 1999. The S&P 500 was positive three months, six months and a year after the beginning, but was down 6%, 8% and 24%, respectively, three years, five years and 10 years after the conflict began.
Part of the S&P 500 being down after that military conflict is due to the dot-com bubble from 2000 to 2002.
Overall, here are the average returns for the S&P 500 for the 23 most recent military conflicts:
- 3 months after: +3%
- 6 months after: +7%
- 1 year after: +12%
- 3 years after: +46%
- 5 years after: +94%
- 10 years after: +227%
- 20 years after: +685%
The S&P 500 was up 10% three months after the conflict and 13% six months after the conflict, outpacing the historic averages.
What’s Next
President Donald Trump has suggested that the Iran War could be declared over soon, which would end the military action that began in February.
The S&P 500 peaked in mid-August. An official end to the war could see the market test those highs again.
Currently, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up 12.1% year-to-date in 2026.
Image via Shutterstock
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