SpaceX Falls More Than 4% as 319 Million Shares Unlock

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares fell more than 4% Wednesday as up to 319 million previously locked-up shares became eligible for sale, more than erasing the stock’s gain a day earlier.

The release is the latest stage of SpaceX’s staggered post-IPO lockup and was worth about $49 billion at Tuesday’s $153.47 closing price. Eligibility does not mean all 319 million shares changed hands.

Benzinga looked at the first two unlocks Tuesday, after SpaceX had largely shrugged off both rounds of additional supply.

Second 319 Million-Share Unlock, Second 4% Drop

Wednesday’s move closely mirrors SpaceX’s previous 319 million-share unlock on Aug. 20, when the stock also fell about 4%. That decline proved short-lived, with shares rebounding the following session.

The reaction has not been consistent. SpaceX actually rose when a much larger tranche unlocked earlier in August.

Wednesday’s release is relatively small compared with SpaceX’s total share count, but amounts to roughly half the number of shares sold in its June IPO.

Early investors may also have substantial gains available to realize. Robert Hackel, CEO of R.F. Lafferty, told Reuters before the first unlock that pre-IPO investors had approached his firm about selling SpaceX shares and reallocating money into companies including OpenAI and Anthropic.

Starship Remains Key to Bull Case

The reversal comes one day after Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak initiated SpaceX with a Buy rating and $220 price target.

Wlodarczak said SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation depends heavily on making Starship rapidly reusable, eventually allowing each vehicle to fly 20 to 50 times with limited refurbishment. Without that breakthrough, he said SpaceX would be a “much smaller company.”

That thesis faces its next test within weeks. Polymarket prediction market traders put the chance of Flight 14 launching by Sept. 30 at about 85%, rising to roughly 97% by Oct. 31.

Traders also give Starship an 84% chance of completing a successful splashdown. That would require the upper stage to survive atmospheric reentry, remain intact during its descent and reach the water without breaking apart or exploding.

A controlled splashdown would show progress on the heat shield, guidance and reentry systems needed for SpaceX’s broader goal of making Starship rapidly reusable, although it would stop short of recovering and flying the vehicle again.

More shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale. Up to 59.1 million affiliate-held shares reach their eligibility date Thursday, followed by another roughly 328 million shares on Sept. 24.

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