Kalshi and Polymarket are becoming bigger names in prediction markets. Now, investors can bet on the businesses behind that growth.
Tema ETFs launched the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (BATS:DICE) on Sept. 9, offering exposure to prediction markets, trading platforms, crypto and the financial infrastructure supporting the sector.
The catch is important. DICE does not invest in prediction-market contracts themselves. Instead, it gives investors exposure to the companies building the market, including private-market stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket.
That makes DICE less about predicting an election result or sports outcome and more about predicting whether prediction markets can become a major financial business.
A Back Door Into Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket together account for 15% of DICE’s portfolio, according to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Neither company is publicly traded, making direct exposure difficult for ordinary investors. DICE gets around that through a special purpose vehicle, or SPV, that holds exposure to the private companies.
The ETF also owns publicly traded companies including Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) and Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN), giving investors a broader bet on the trading and digital-asset ecosystem surrounding prediction markets.
The structure essentially creates a public-market wrapper around a corner of finance that remains largely private.
Betting on a $1 Trillion Market
Tema President Steve Munroe said prediction-market trading volume is forecast to increase nearly 20-fold to $1 trillion by 2030.
The timing of DICE’s launch is also notable. The ETF began trading as the 2026 NFL season kicked off and the U.S. midterm election cycle starts gaining momentum, potentially giving prediction-market platforms another wave of attention and activity.
But the bigger investment question is whether that activity can translate into sustainable growth for the companies running these platforms.
Regulation Remains the Wildcard
DICE’s structure also reflects the regulatory uncertainty surrounding prediction markets.
Rather than hold event contracts tied to elections, sports or economic outcomes, the ETF invests in the businesses and infrastructure around them. That keeps the fund one step removed from the contracts themselves as regulators continue to scrutinize the space.
For investors, however, that also means DICE isn’t a pure prediction-market play. Its portfolio extends into crypto exchanges, trading platforms and other financial businesses.
The fund charges a 0.75% gross expense ratio, reflecting its specialized strategy.
For now, DICE offers a novel proposition. Investors don’t have to make the prediction themselves. They can instead make a second-order bet that the business of prediction markets is only getting started.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Photo: Shutterstock
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