UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said Wednesday that investors may be underestimating the risks facing markets, pointing to a growing mix of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
"There has been a level of complacency in financial markets in the last few years," Ermotti said in an interview with CNBC. He noted that the current environment would typically be expected to produce significantly greater volatility.
The UBS chief warned that investors are facing a complex scenario due to several headwinds.
However, he added that even though markets have seen occasional moments of volatility, strong investment in AI, data centers, and other new technologies has helped back economic growth and financial markets.
Geopolitical Risk Continues to Mount
The war in Iran and Ukraine has increased energy and shipping risks, while the U.S.-China tussle has strained supply chains. The rising borrowing costs and inflation have also resulted in headwinds for economic growth.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that the Iran war will end after the midterm elections in November, but investor Peter Schiff called it his "latest lie," warning it will push oil prices and interest rates even higher.
Ermotti noted that uncertainty is causing some of the world’s richest investors to spread their bets broadly rather than make large directional calls.
Investor Sentiment Weakening?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 405.41 points, or 0.77%, to end at 52,380.66 on Wednesday, posting a three-day slide. On Tuesday, the CNN Money Fear and Greed Index also showed a decline in overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the "Fear" zone. Data on producer prices will be released on Thursday, while the consumer price index is slated for release on Friday.
TD Securities projects the August Consumer Price Index will show price declines in goods subject to tariffs.
Ermotti noted that higher interest rates are also encouraging investors to take a more balanced approach to their portfolios, adding that continuous inflation keeps pressure on central banks.
The UBS chief said that “The ECB may start hike process. The Fed will follow,” adding that they expect a couple of hikes in the next few months.
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