Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) has shed 17% of its value in 2026 and sits more than 50% below its 52-week peak ahead of Thursday’s after-the-bell earnings report. Options traders are pricing in a move far larger than the stock’s recent slump would suggest.
- ORCL stock is moving ahead of earnings. See the real-time price action here.
Big Move Expected
Implied volatility points to roughly an 11% swing once results land, according to Benzinga Pro options data. Oracle’s average post-earnings move over the past three quarters has run closer to 9.5%, so the market is leaning toward an outsized reaction rather than a modest one.
Memories of last September’s post-earnings move still looms large: shares surged 35% after that report crushed expectations.
Calls Outpacing Puts
However, the more telling detail lies in how the options are structured rather than in the size of the expected move. Call open interest has piled up well beyond put open interest, and calls near the expected trading range carry noticeably richer premiums than puts sitting an equal distance from the current price.
IG Group’s Julia Spina pointed to specific Sept. 11 weekly contracts as evidence: puts roughly $18 below the stock price, which traded near $2.34 as of Tuesday’s close, while calls, a similar distance above, traded closer to $3.90, CNBC reported.
Investors are effectively paying a premium for upside exposure, inverting the pattern seen across most of the equities market, where downside protection typically commands the higher price.
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Why Traders Lean Bullish
Spina offered several explanations. Momentum has been building into the print, with shares up 15% over the past week alone. A recent track record of violent upside reactions may also be pushing traders to hedge against missing a rally rather than against a decline.
Optimism tied to the stock’s rebound off July’s 52-week lows could be feeding the pattern as well.
Big tech earnings this cycle lend some support to the bullish tilt. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) jumped more than 15% after posting revenue growth that validated its AI spending. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose about 15.5% on accelerating bookings that eased fears its AI investment had outpaced demand, according to CNBC.
Investors will be watching whether Oracle can deliver a similar validation without straining its balance sheet further amid its aggressive AI infrastructure buildout, which remains the central question heading into Thursday’s numbers.
ORCL Stock Price Activity: Oracle stock was down 2.54% at $157.52 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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