Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) reports fiscal third-quarter earnings after the bell today.
The company has beaten earnings estimates for six straight quarters and nine of the last 10, which may be why Polymarket traders give it roughly a 92% chance of beating the market’s $6.08 non-GAAP EPS benchmark tonight.
The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words CEO Shantanu Narayen and his team will say on the 5 p.m. ET call.
What Kalshi Predicts Narayen Will Say
"GenStudio" is at 93%. GenStudio is Adobe’s platform for helping large companies create and manage marketing content using AI. Its annual recurring revenue grew more than 25% year-over-year last quarter, making it one of the clearest places Adobe can point to actual AI-related growth.
"Semrush" is also at 93%. Adobe bought the search-marketing company in April and is using its data to help brands track how they appear in both traditional search and AI-generated answers.
"OpenAI" is at 86%. Adobe works with OpenAI by making some Photoshop and Acrobat features available through ChatGPT, but the two companies also compete in AI image generation.
That tension sharpened Wednesday, when The Information reported that OpenAI will stop accepting ChatGPT ads for rival image- and audio-generation products, including Adobe Firefly.
‘Nvidia’ sits at 61%. Adobe and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) partnered in March, with Nvidia technology helping power next-generation Firefly models alongside work on AI agents and 3D digital twins.
"LLM Optimizer" is at 56%. Adobe renamed the product Adobe Brand Visibility in early August and added Semrush data to help companies track how their brands appear in AI search. At 56%, traders are split on whether the old name survives tonight’s call.
What Kalshi Predicts Narayen Will Skip
"Disney" sits at 33%. Walt Disney Imagineering is working with Adobe to build custom Firefly models trained on Disney’s own creative assets, including tools for concept art and 3D design.
"Firefly Video" sits at just 13%. Adobe launched a new AI video tool inside Premiere this week, but editors can choose whether to generate footage with Firefly or rival models from Google, Kling, Runway and Luma.
The low odds suggest Adobe may focus more on Premiere as the place creators use AI, rather than pushing Firefly Video itself.
Reading the Board
Traders expect Narayen to spend plenty of time on Adobe’s AI products, acquisitions and partnerships. The bigger question is whether AI is becoming a new growth engine or eroding the value of Adobe’s core creative software.
That debate has split two prominent contrarian investors. Michael Burry called Adobe a "Fat Pitch" in May, arguing investors had pushed the stock too low despite its cash generation, $25 billion buyback and entrenched position in creative software. He said he owned a "full position."
Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner took the opposite view. His Situational Awareness fund reportedly shorted Adobe as part of a broader bet against software vulnerable to AI disruption before unwinding most of its public-equity book in July. The bet went badly against him as Adobe rallied in July
Adobe shares are down 23.3% this year.
It may be Narayen’s last earnings call as CEO, with Anil Chakravarthy set to take over Dec. 1 and Adobe’s next report typically landing in mid-December.
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