Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is about to turn Starship into a revenue-generating rocket for the first time, raising a new question for Elon Musk: how much launch capacity goes to Starlink, and how much goes to reaching the Moon?
SpaceX has spent more than $15 billion developing Starship. Now the rocket could quickly expand Starlink, its biggest source of revenue.
NASA, meanwhile, still needs SpaceX to prove Starship can refuel in orbit and safely carry astronauts before it can return humans to the Moon.
Starlink Starts Paying Back
CFO Bret Johnsen said Thursday at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia and Technology Conference that Flight 14 will carry production Starlink V3 satellites and become Starship’s first “revenue-generating flight.“
Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, more than twice the roughly $4.3 billion value of SpaceX’s NASA lunar contracts.
Musk said on SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings call that V3 satellites are more than 10 times as capable as V2, with SpaceX planning to launch roughly 10 times as many.
“I think people are really underestimating Starlink here,” Musk said. “This is a big deal.”
NASA Needs a Different Starship
Each launch gives engineers another chance to test reliability, reentry and reuse, all of which are needed before humans can fly.
Starlink missions can do some of that work while also generating revenue. But reaching the Moon requires additional tests that ordinary Starlink launches cannot provide. SpaceX still needs to prove Starship can refuel another spacecraft in orbit and operate for long periods in space.
NASA’s lunar lander is also a separate version of Starship, requiring additional development and testing. Bloomberg reported that a single Moon mission could require a dozen or more refueling launches.
SpaceX has warned investors that it may prioritize its own payloads over government or third-party missions. But NASA remains an important customer. Roughly a fifth of SpaceX’s reported revenue comes from U.S. government contracts.
NASA is targeting a lunar landing in early 2028, while Blue Origin is developing a rival lander.
Traders Bet on Flight 14
Polymarket traders put a 92.5% chance on Flight 14 launching by Sept. 30 and a 79% chance on a successful splashdown, with roughly $516,000 traded across the Flight 14 markets.
Pivotal Research initiated SpaceX coverage last week with a Buy rating and $220 target, arguing its roughly $2 trillion valuation rests heavily on rapid Starship reuse.
That target sits about 45% above SpaceX’s $151.21 Friday close.
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