The bond market spent five months demanding that the Federal Reserve take inflation seriously.
On Wednesday it got its answer, and on Thursday it rallied.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 4.95%, dropping back below the 5.04% level it touched Tuesday, the highest since July 2007.
Before Thursday, the 10-year yield had risen for eight consecutive sessions, the longest streak since 2022.
The 2-year fell 6 basis points to 4.68%, the 5-year dropped 9 basis points to 4.80% and the 30-year eased 6 basis points to 5.31%.
That is a curve rallying the day after a central bank raised rates and told everyone it was not finished.
Which is precisely the point.
Chart: 10-Year Yields Erase Fed-Meeting Jump
Look At The Breakevens, Not The Headline Yield
The clearest evidence sits in the inflation-protected market.
The 10-year TIPS yield fell by only 2 basis points on Thursday, compared with 7 basis points on the nominal note.
The gap between them — the breakeven rate, or the inflation compensation investors demand — narrowed to roughly 2.30% from about 2.36%.
Nominal yields did not fall because growth expectations cracked. They fell because the inflation premium embedded in them came out.
Investors are asking for less protection against future price increases, which is the textbook definition of a central bank regaining credibility.
“The Fed sent a strongly hawkish message at its September meeting. The statement removed the language around inflation being partly due to supply shocks. I.e., no more excuses,” said Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave.
Short rates went up because the Fed is hiking. Long rates did not, because the market decided the hiking works.
“A Fed that does not think policy is restrictive should keep hiking until it finds a point of restriction, favoring continued increases in front-end nominal U.S. rates and more moderate increases in longer-dated rates,” Bhave added.
Bank of America maintains its call for two more 25-basis-point hikes, in October and December.
What The Fed Actually Delivered
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to lift the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.
“Inflation remains elevated,” the committee said in its statement.
Peter Williams of 22V Research argued the hawkishness was not in the hike at all.
“The most hawkish element of the day was not the hike itself but rather the fact that only two dots suggested that the hiking cycle would be one and done,” he wrote, noting the doves had “almost universally moved towards accepting the need for near-term policy pivot.”
The Fed’s updated projections point to one more quarter-point increase in 2026, to a median of about 4.1%. Twelve of 18 officials see a single additional hike; four see two.
Williams also flagged that the risk assessments carry “its most optimistic skew ever on growth risks” alongside one of its worst on inflation.
Ed Yardeni summarized the setup simply: “The bar for another rate hike is low.”
The Data Is Not Helping The Doves
Thursday’s releases reinforced the picture. Initial jobless claims approached a 60-year low.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker had already lifted its third-quarter real GDP estimate to 5.1% from 4.4%, driven by consumer spending now tracking at 4.1%.
August retail sales rose 1.2% against 0.8% expected, with the control group up 1.4% versus 0.5% — the strongest in nearly two years, and broad-based across 12 of 13 categories.
Bond Funds Remain Near One-Year Lows
The two-day move has not repaired the year. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) trades near $80.88, close to its 52-week low of $80.46 and well below its $92.19 high.
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:AGG) are both within pennies of their own 52-week lows.
Photo: Shutterstock
Login to comment