Goldman Slashes Tesla Q3 Delivery Forecast to 435,000: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

Goldman Sachs has cut its third-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) to 435,000 vehicles, while prediction traders are centered around 480,000.

Goldman analyst Mark Delaney lowered his estimate from 490,000 while maintaining a Neutral rating and $360 price target. His forecast also sits below the 456,000 Visible Alpha consensus.

Yes shares on Kalshi for Tesla topping 480,000 deliveries traded at 57 cents Thursday. That puts the market’s midpoint at least 45,000 vehicles above Goldman’s call.

Kalshi Traders Were Far Closer in Q2

Goldman and Kalshi split the same way before Tesla’s previous quarter report.

Delaney raised Goldman’s Q2 estimate to 420,000 on June 16. By June 26, Tesla’s company-compiled analyst consensus stood at 406,024.

Hours before Tesla reported on July 2, Benzinga reported Kalshi gave Tesla a 66% chance of topping 475,000 and a 56% chance of topping 480,000.

Tesla ultimately delivered 480,126 vehicles, almost exactly where Kalshi’s odds were centered, more than 60,000 above Goldman’s June estimate and roughly 74,000 above the broader consensus.

Goldman Sees More Pressure This Time

Goldman’s new forecast follows weaker-than-expected sales across the U.S., China and Europe.

Tesla sold an estimated 40,816 vehicles in the U.S. in August, down 26% from 55,500 a year earlier. The year-ago figure was inflated as buyers rushed to claim as buyers rushed to claim the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired Sept. 30.

China retail sales fell 12.4% year over year to 50,047 vehicles in August.

Q2’s 480,126 deliveries also benefited from an inventory drawdown. Tesla delivered about 28,000 more vehicles than it produced, meaning matching that result may require higher production or another drawdown.

Goldman sees one offset. Export markets supplied by Tesla’s Shanghai factory are growing, which could partly cushion weakness in the U.S., China and Europe.

That leaves a clear divide: Goldman’s 435,000 forecast implies a meaningful drop from Q2, while Kalshi traders are centered around 480,000, roughly in line with last quarter.

Tesla has not announced its Q3 delivery date. Its second-quarter tally arrived two days after the quarter ended.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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