Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) broke above $80,000 Friday, surging 6%, even as CoinShares warned of a difficult setup heading into year-end.
Why CoinShares Sees Two Headwinds Stacking Up
CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill wrote in a Friday note that two developments now weigh on Bitcoin into year-end.
Hawkish Fed
- Removing expected easing through 2027 from the dot plot matters more than the hike itself
- Supports the dollar and delays the liquidity conditions Bitcoin typically feeds on
- Iran’s ongoing conflict keeps energy prices elevated, raising odds of another hike this year
Clarity Act failure
- Not a multi-year delay, in Butterfill’s view
- Stablecoin issuers now buy meaningful US government debt at elevated yields, keeping the bill bipartisan-relevant
- A revised version could return as early as next year
The impact also lands unevenly. Bitcoin stays relatively insulated given its clearer regulatory footing, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and other altcoins carry more exposure since much of the stablecoin payment infrastructure runs on those networks.
Why Rate Policy Alone May Not Matter This Much
As Benzinga reported Thursday, Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl offered a more measured read on the same rate hike, calling it a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a policy shift.
He compared it to the Greenspan Fed’s 1997 mid-cycle hike, after which the Nasdaq bull market kept running, and expects one or two more hikes in 2026 to have limited effect on capital allocation into digital assets.
Pandl also flagged that stablecoin issuers like Circle (NYSE:CRCL) and Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) actually benefit from higher rates through their Treasury and money market reserves, showing rate policy hits different corners of crypto differently rather than uniformly.
BTC Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch
BTC breaks sharply out of its descending triangle Friday, climbing to $80,804 in a move that clears both the falling trendline and the EMA cluster in one candle.
The MACD just turned bullish, crossing back above its signal line after weeks of fading momentum. The 20-day EMA at $77,217 has been reclaimed as support.
Key levels for BTC:
- $82,000 — September high and triangle origin, next major test
- $77,217 — 20-day EMA, must hold to keep momentum intact
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