Netflix Stock Has ‘a Heck of a Lot of Bad News Priced in,’ Analyst Says

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock traded higher Tuesday in premarket trading as U.S. stock futures remained steady. Nasdaq futures rose 0.12%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.05%.

The stock remains below several key moving averages after a difficult year. Weaker engagement, a lack of breakout hits and growing competition from short-form video have weighed on investor sentiment.

Still, analysts at Evercore ISI and Piper Sandler see several ways Netflix could revive growth.

The shares have fallen 40.23% over the past 12 months. That weakness follows a period in which investors questioned both Netflix’s valuation and its ability to sustain engagement.

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney said Friday that Netflix entered the year trading at roughly 35 to 40 times earnings, leaving little room for disappointment.

Speaking on CNBC, Mahaney said uncertainty around Netflix’s attempted Warner Bros. deal also hurt sentiment. Investors questioned whether the strategy was offensive or defensive.

At the same time, engagement weakened as Netflix failed to produce enough major breakout hits. Mahaney also pointed to growing competition from YouTube, TikTok and other short-form platforms.

Analysts See Paths To Renewed Growth

Despite those concerns, Mahaney remains bullish. Evercore raised its Netflix price target to $110 from $100.

He said Netflix could benefit from expanding its lower-cost, ad-supported offering into 15 additional international markets. He also expects live programming to attract new subscribers and support engagement.

Mahaney cited Netflix’s exclusive World Baseball Classic streaming rights in Japan as one example. He also highlighted the Women’s World Cup, which Netflix is set to stream exclusively in North America next year.

Piper Sandler analyst Tom Champion also sees room for Netflix to adapt.

Champion said Netflix has already successfully reshaped its business through its password-sharing crackdown and growing advertising operation.

The next opportunity could come from mobile-first content, he said in a CNBC appearance.

Champion pointed to “micro-dramas,” or short, vertically formatted programs designed for smartphone viewing. Such content could help Netflix compete for consumer attention outside the living room.

With Netflix shares under pressure, Champion said the stock already reflects significant pessimism. “There is a heck of a lot of bad news priced in,” he said. The key question is whether Netflix can adapt its content strategy again and improve engagement.

Technical Analysis

Netflix is trading 13.4% below its 200-day simple moving average of $85.30. It is also 6.1% below its 20-day SMA of $78.60 and 2.5% below its 50-day SMA of $75.72.

That setup leaves several potential resistance levels above the current price.

The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, offering a more constructive short-term signal. However, the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA.

That reflects the “death cross” formed in December 2025 and points to continued weakness in the longer-term trend.

Momentum also remains soft. Netflix’s MACD is below its signal line, while the histogram is negative. That suggests buying momentum has weakened.

• Key resistance: $82.50, a potential hurdle above the current trading range.
• Key support: $71, followed by the 52-week low of $65.08.

Analyst Outlook

Netflix carries a consensus Buy rating and an average price forecast of $90.05.

Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix to Underweight on Sept. 18 and lowered its price forecast to $57. Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating and raised its forecast to $110 from $100. Wolfe Research also maintained an Outperform rating and raised its forecast to $95 on Aug. 25.

The stock trades at about 23.1 times earnings.

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Netflix scores strongly on quality and growth but remains weak on momentum and value.

Its Benzinga Edge scores are 89.63 for quality and 82.36 for growth. Momentum stands at 8.1, while value comes in at 18.61.

The readings highlight the contrast between Netflix’s business fundamentals and its weaker stock-price trend.

From a technical perspective, a move back above the $75 to $79 area could improve the short-term setup. A break below $71 would put the 52-week low back in focus.

Top ETF Exposure

Netflix is a major holding in several exchange-traded funds.

The REX FANG & Innovation Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ:FEPI) has a 6.84% weighting in the stock. The Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF (NYSE:AIEQ) carries a 5.48% weighting, while the Global X PureCap MSCI Communication Services ETF (NYSE:GXPC) has a 4.92% weighting.

Large fund flows into or out of these ETFs can contribute to trading activity in Netflix shares.

Price Action

Netflix shares rose 0.66% to $73.84 in Tuesday premarket trading, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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