Oil near $100 a barrel would normally look like the beginning of an economic problem. Instead, the U.S. stock market is near records, artificial-intelligence investment remains robust and economic growth is holding up.
That contradiction may be the most important feature of the current energy crisis.
Bank of America commodity analyst Francisco Blanch now sees a scenario where Brent crude may need to surge well above $150 per barrel before demand finally gives way.
Why the Oil Shock Isn’t Breaking Growth Yet
Brent crude slipped below $100 Tuesday as investors reacted to signs that Gulf supply could improve.
Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure. Saudi Arabia has also restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline.
But the headline price hides how strained the physical oil market remains.
Only two commodity vessels crossed Hormuz Monday, down from 10 Sunday, according to Kpler.
Before the conflict, roughly 125 large commercial vessels crossed the waterway each day.
Bank of America sees those disruptions increasingly behaving less like a temporary shock and more like a persistent constraint.
"Continued skirmishes into year-end are now our most likely scenario," Blanch said in a note Tuesday.
The bank raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast to $95 from $83.
Still, the global economy has absorbed the shock surprisingly well, Blanch said. Governments are spending freely. Monetary conditions remain loose. Nominal growth, which includes inflation, is strong. Defense and AI-related industrial activity keep factories busy.
Energy spending remains a relatively small share of global output. Credit markets have not deteriorated in a meaningful way.
“Energy prices are still relatively affordable when adjusted for income and inflation, and growth is not slowing down yet,” Blanch said.
Why $150 Oil?
Normally, rising oil prices contain their own cure.
Fuel gets expensive. Consumers drive less. Airlines reduce capacity. Companies cut energy use. Demand falls until the market balances again.
Bank of America’s problem is that this mechanism has barely started working.
Energy spending remains manageable relative to nominal incomes, while global economic activity continues to expand.
The U.S. is especially insulated compared with previous oil shocks because it has become a major producer and exporter of crude oil, natural gas, refined products and liquefied natural gas.
At the same time, powerful new sources of investment are keeping demand alive.
AI data centers are consuming enormous amounts of capital. The biggest hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually on new computing infrastructure.
That is where Bank of America’s $150 scenario comes from.
Blanch said the biggest change is "a growing tail risk" as commercial and strategic inventories continue declining.
If disruptions last into spring 2027, or more oil infrastructure is damaged, he said Brent front-month futures may have to move "well above $150/bbl to curb global oil demand."
The futures curve already shows scarcity.
Contracts for near-term delivery trade far above those for later delivery, a pattern called backwardation. It means buyers are paying up to get oil now.
| Bank of America Brent Forecast | Previous | New |
|---|---|---|
| Second half 2026 | $83/bbl | $95/bbl |
| 2027 average | ~$80/bbl | |
| Tail scenario | Well above $150/bbl |
Where Oil Trades Now
Brent is trading close to the bank’s new forecast.
Kalshi contracts on Brent’s Sept. 21 settlement priced a 57% chance of a close above $98 and 51% above $98.50.
Investors tracking the move can follow the United States Brent Oil Fund LP (NYSE:BNO) and the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO).
The $150 call is a tail risk, not the bank’s base case.
Blanch still expects inventory draws to hold Brent near $80 in 2027. How far prices go depends on how long the disruption lasts.
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