Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) accumulated around 13% over the past week but veteran investor Mark Yusko sees more downside before its next major leg higher.
He predicts a potential drop into the low $60,000s before the crypto king makes a run toward $100,000.
Why A BTC Retest Below $60K?
Yusko, in an interview with Money Talks on Sep.22, pushed back against claims that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has broken. He argued that it peaked almost precisely in line with the historical cycle.
While Bitcoin may have already bottomed, Yusko added that recent price action does not provide enough evidence to declare the correction over.
He pointed to Bitcoin becoming “super, super overbought” during its recent short squeeze, saying sharp upside moves can still resemble bear-market behavior.
“I don’t think we’re out of the woods,” Yusko noted.
Based on previous cycles, he identified early October as a potential window for the cycle bottom. However, he expects any final decline to be less severe than previous bear markets because the system carries less leverage.
Yusko Sees Bitcoin Below Fair Value
Yusko highlighted that Bitcoin’s long-term value continues to follow network adoption, citing Metcalfe’s Law as a framework for estimating its fundamental value.
He argued Bitcoin remains significantly below that level, even after its recent rebound.
Yusko also pointed to the divergence between Bitcoin and global money supply growth. While global liquidity continued expanding, Bitcoin moved lower, creating what he described as a “beach ball being held underwater.”
“Eventually, it’s going to pop up,” he said.
Yusko attributed part of Bitcoin’s suppressed performance to institutional basis trades, where hedge funds buy spot Bitcoin ETFs while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures.
That positioning leaves many funds market-neutral rather than making a directional bet on Bitcoin, he said.
‘Everyone’ Should Own Bitcoin
Beyond the near-term cycle, Yusko argued investors should hold Bitcoin as protection against currency debasement.
“Everyone should have 5%, 8%, 10%,” he said.
He views Bitcoin and gold primarily as stores of value rather than conventional risk assets, arguing they can protect purchasing power as governments expand money supplies.
Yusko said younger investors can justify larger exposure because they have longer investment horizons and greater capacity to tolerate volatility.
The investor remains less enthusiastic about other crypto assets.
Yusko said his firm has sold its entire Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) position despite previously generating substantial returns, citing concerns about token economics and whether token holders adequately participate in network-generated value.
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