Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen admitted Wednesday that his bearish rate-hike thesis on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) missed the mark, conceding the data never actually supported it.
Where Cowen’s Thesis Broke Down
Cowen said on his YouTube channel that his original chain of logic seemed airtight. Rising energy prices would push yields higher, forcing the Fed to hike in September, which would strengthen the dollar and ultimately drag Bitcoin lower.
Every link in that chain played out exactly as he expected, except the final one. Bitcoin rallied instead of falling, even as the dollar climbed.
He pointed to a clear divergence from his prior pattern. Back in May, a similar dollar double-bottom had corresponded with a Bitcoin local top. This time, Bitcoin followed the dollar higher instead of dropping. “Something clearly changed,” he said.
Why the Rate-Hike History Proved Him Wrong
Cowen walked through Bitcoin’s performance after the first rate hike in previous Fed tightening cycles, in December 2015 and March 2022.
Bitcoin never fell immediately in either case. The 2015 bottom was already in place before the hike, and after the September 2018 and September 2022 hikes specifically, Bitcoin held up well for a month or two rather than dropping right away.
“None of the data suggests that a rate hike has ever been immediately bearish for Bitcoin,” Cowen said. “I think my mistake was assuming that a rate hike would cause Bitcoin to immediately reprice when I shouldn’t have assumed that.”
Why He’s Now Deferring to Other Analysts
Cowen noted Bitcoin’s rally off the summer low has already reached 50%, a bigger move than the roughly 40% rallies seen in the comparable stretches of 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin also printed a higher high this time, unlike the lower highs in both prior midterm-year cycles.
Given that his own framework failed to predict the breakout, Cowen said he no longer feels he has the credibility to call the next move.
Instead, he’s directing attention to analysts who correctly anticipated this rally. “The burden of proof has shifted to the bears rather than the bulls,” he said.
“The bulls have proven a higher high, and now it’s the bears who have to prove anything,” he added.
What Could Still Bring Weakness
Cowen said any real downside later in Q4 would likely need to come alongside a meaningful correction in the broader stock market, since past Bitcoin selloffs in midterm years typically tracked equity weakness rather than happening in isolation.
He also noted that in prior midterm cycles, the final leg of weakness tended to show up after the midterm elections rather than before, and that any future low might resolve as a higher low rather than a fresh cycle bottom.
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