Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Thursday, with its earnings call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET.
Wall Street expects earnings of about $6.53 per share, up from $5.87 a year ago. Costco has already reported fourth-quarter net sales of $93.9 billion, up 11.3%.
Polymarket traders give Costco a 69% chance of beating quarterly earnings.
Kalshi traders have wagered more than $95,000 on which words CEO Ron Vachris and his team will use during the call.
What Kalshi Predicts Costco Will Say
“Kirkland” leads the board at 99%, followed by “Tariff” at 96%.
Both go to the heart of Costco’s low-price model. Management said Kirkland Signature drove growth last quarter, while Vachris said Costco started filing tariff refund claims and planned to return to members the portion covering costs it had passed on to them.
“Protein” trades at 83%. Costco said protein snacks and bars posted significant growth last quarter, while Vachris said major consumer brands were adapting products for customers taking GLP-1 drugs.
“Retail Media” sits at 80%. Costco launched a collaboration with Google Ads and YouTube last quarter as it looks to expand its advertising business.
“Hot Dog” is at 57%. Costco’s $1.50 hot dog-and-soda combo has held the same price since 1985. Former CEO Craig Jelinek once recalled telling co-founder Jim Sinegal that Costco was losing money on it, only for Sinegal to reply, “If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you.”
“Dividend” sits at 59%. CFO Gary Millerchip said last quarter Costco continued to generate excess cash and viewed a special dividend as typically the most effective way to return it. Its last special dividend was $15 per share, paid in January 2024.
What Kalshi Predicts Costco Will Skip
The biggest disconnect is “Protein” at 83% versus “GLP-1 / GLP 1” at just 35%, despite management explicitly linking changes in GLP-1 eating habits to demand for protein products last quarter.
Another appears in advertising. “Retail Media” trades at 80%, but “Google / YouTube” sits at just 30% despite Costco announcing that partnership on its previous call.
“Buyback / Buy Back” trades at 33%. Costco does repurchase shares, but Millerchip said last quarter the company mainly uses buybacks to offset dilution from executive stock grants.
Reading the Board
Costco deliberately runs on thin merchandise margins, while recurring membership fees drive its profitability. Paid memberships rose 4.1% last quarter to 82.9 million, and U.S./Canada renewal held at 92.2%, while gross margin slipped 21 basis points to 11.04%.
With COST trading at roughly 40 times forward earnings, investors will be looking for evidence that profit and membership growth are keeping pace with sales.
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