Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has pulled back to $84,000 over the last week, but the real test is yet ahead in light of rising Treasury yields, according to a Binance Research note published Monday.
Brent crude topped $103 on Sept. 23, while PMI data hit a 62-month high. A weak 5-year Treasury auction then pushed October rate-hike odds toward 70% and sent the 10-year yield to 5.17%, its highest level since 2007.
Bitcoin has pulled back to around $84,000 in response, which the analysts say shows pressure at the long end of the yield curve matters more right now than the Fed’s actual policy decision.
Yet, Binance Research analysts Moulik Nagesh and Ken Lam wrote in their note that three bullish signals could counterbalance the macro pressure on Bitcoin.
ETF Demand Is Turning Positive
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for most of 2026, bottoming at a cumulative net outflow of $5.69 billion on July 13.
That reversed sharply on Sept. 21, when ETFs pulled in $999 million in a single day, the largest daily inflow of the year and the biggest since Oct. 6, 2025.
Flows have stayed positive since, pushing 2026 into net positive territory even through the recent bond selloff. To the analysts, this signals real spot demand rather than futures-driven speculation.
Bitcoin Reclaimed Its 50-Week Moving Average
Bitcoin closed the week of Sept. 20 at $81,159, its first weekly close above the 50-week moving average since Nov. 9, 2025, a 45-week gap.
The next test is whether Bitcoin holds above that level through market pullbacks. Most historical reclaims haven’t led to new cycle lows, though the analysts note the signal isn’t infallible.
A Golden Cross Followed a Deep Reset
A golden cross formed Sept. 8, when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day, following 293 days spent below it.
Looking at 12 prior similar crosses, those following at least 150 days below the 200-day average were associated with peak gains between 100% and 600% within the following year.
The analysts caution these figures represent peak gains rather than guaranteed returns, and the small, overlapping sample size limits how much weight to put on the pattern.
What’s Next
Upcoming inflation and employment data will decide which force wins out:
- Bullish scenario: Softer-than-expected core PCE data eases rate pressure and supports the recovery
- Bearish scenario: Hotter inflation, strong payrolls, or an upside GDP revision reinforces the case for another Fed hike and adds fresh pressure on Bitcoin
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