Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaimed $84,000 Tuesday morning, invalidating a key part of prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen’s thesis of a deeper bear market decline.
Is $83,000 Making the Bear Case Harder?
Cowen told the Bankless podcast on Monday that he expected Bitcoin to rally during the summer before weakening into Q4—in line with the traditional four-year cycle.
Instead, Bitcoin broke above its May high of $82,800 and made a higher high, which historically has signaled the end of the bear market as BTC crossed its 50-week moving average.
"As long as Bitcoin can kind of hold above $83,000, then it’s hard to be deterministically bearish," Cowen said.
He stressed that his change in view does not mean Q4 weakness is impossible.
Bitcoin could still pull back after establishing a higher high. Cowen now sees a higher low as more plausible than automatically expecting a fresh cycle low.
A failed breakout above $82,800 could hit altcoins even harder after their recent rally.
Macro Headwinds Haven’t Stopped Bitcoin
Cowen acknowledged that Bitcoin’s resilience has surprised him because several macro developments he expected, including higher energy prices, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar, have materialized without derailing Bitcoin.
Rather than forcing the chart to fit the macro thesis, Cowen said traders should respond to Bitcoin’s price action.
Cowen also expects diminishing returns in the next bull cycle if the summer low holds, arguing that Bitcoin’s relatively shallow 53% peak-to-trough decline did not produce the type of capitulation seen in previous cycles.
An earlier bottom could also mean an earlier eventual cycle peak, as the next bull market would effectively have started sooner.
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