SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) put Starship into orbit for the first time Monday, but the real economic breakthrough will come if it can return from orbit and rapidly fly again, Andrew Bonwick of specialty insurer Relm Insurance told Benzinga.
"The really big thing is getting that second stage reusable," said Bonwick, the Bermuda-based insurer’s VP of product development and innovation. "And reusable on a timeline that makes it commercially viable."
Bonwick said he is “pretty convinced” Elon Musk will get there, “but it’s not there yet.”
Starship Is Still a ‘Science Experiment’
Starship 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites despite an engine shutting down during ascent.
Bonwick said SpaceX is unusual because Musk is willing to accept failed launches while engineers keep developing the rocket through real-world tests.
"Starship is still a science experiment," Bonwick said.
That approach is easier when SpaceX is putting its own relatively low-cost Starlink satellites on board. For a company with a satellite worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the calculation is very different.
Bonwick said those customers would likely want to see around "10 successful launches in a row" before trusting Starship with an expensive payload. Until then, the far more established Falcon 9 remains the safer option.
SpaceX Plans to Retire Falcon 9
SpaceX has reportedly stopped taking new Falcon 9 bookings for missions after 2028, including rideshare flights, as it shifts toward Starship. That could create an opening for Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) and its larger Neutron rocket.
"There are people that we know who are trying to get stuff into orbit in a couple of years’ time, there’s nowhere to go," Bonwick said.
Where Bonwick Sees the Opportunity in Space
Bonwick said he sees opportunity in Earth observation, but increasingly the value is not in selling raw satellite images. Customers want useful answers, such as whether crops need water, where ships are moving or what is happening on a battlefield.
"People do not buy space services, people buy services that are delivered from space," he said. Bonwick pointed to ICEYE, whose radar satellites can be tasked to monitor specific locations, as an example of how space data can feed higher-value commercial services.
Bonwick also sees opportunity in high-value, low-volume manufacturing in orbit.
A recent Relm report with Seraphim Space highlighted semiconductor materials and pharmaceuticals as promising early applications.
He pointed to silicon substrates for defense-grade chips, protein crystals used in cancer research and retinal implants as products already tested in microgravity aboard the International Space Station.
"These are all real things that have been done right now today. They are not science fiction," Bonwick said.
With the ISS due to come down in the next few years, Bonwick said commercial stations from companies such as Starlab Space and Vast could provide new platforms for research and manufacturing currently done aboard the station.
‘AI in Space’ May Be Overhyped
Asked what investors currently overestimate, Bonwick answered: "AI in space."
"And therefore SpaceX. To be blunt,” he added, calling it a personal view.
Bonwick stressed that he views SpaceX’s launch and Starlink operations as strong, profitable businesses. His skepticism centers on valuations that assume a much larger future business from AI and orbital computing, where he sees cooling and maintenance as major hurdles.
Kalshi traders put a 41% chance on a 1-megawatt data center going live in orbit before 2035.
"One probably, at scale no," Bonwick said when asked his opinion on the market. "It will make a big loss and it will break and have to be repaired."
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Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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