Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) may not need to lose the sale to lose part of the economics of AI shopping. A new Andreessen Horowitz analysis argues that AI assistants could become the place where consumers decide what to buy, potentially bypassing Amazon’s sponsored listings even when the final order still moves through its warehouses.
Amazon’s Bigger AI Risk
The distinction matters because Amazon has built a substantial business around controlling the shopping journey. In 2025, the company generated $69 billion in advertising revenue, up 22% from a year earlier, according to Amazon’s Q4 2025 earnings report. Advertising has become an increasingly important part of the economics surrounding its retail marketplace.
That is the vulnerability highlighted by a16z partners Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez. Their Sept. 29 analysis argues that AI agents do not need to recreate Amazon’s fulfillment network to put pressure on its profits. They simply need to become the place where consumers decide what to purchase.
The distinction is subtle but important. An AI assistant could compare products, make a recommendation and send the resulting order to Amazon without the shopper ever browsing Amazon’s search results or seeing a sponsored product.
That could leave Amazon with the physical fulfillment while someone else controls discovery.
Amazon Is Building Its Defense
Amazon is not standing still. The company has already combined Rufus and Alexa+ into Alexa for Shopping, an agentic assistant offering recommendations, product comparisons, price history and automated purchases. Amazon said active users were close to doubling in the second quarter, while interactions increased more than fivefold year over year.
Amazon is also incorporating advertising into its own AI experiences. CEO Andy Jassy said shoppers increasingly discover products through Alexa+ and Alexa for Shopping, while Sponsored Prompt clicks convert to sales 48% more often and generate 21% higher average spending than shoppers who do not click them.
That makes the fight over outside AI agents more consequential. Amazon is effectively trying to make sure the AI interface remains connected to the advertising engine.
The Investor Question Is Discovery
The bigger question for AMZN investors is whether AI shopping creates incremental demand or simply reroutes existing demand through a new intermediary.
a16z argues that Amazon’s massive fulfillment infrastructure gives it bargaining power, but warns that retaining the order does not necessarily mean retaining the same profit pool.
For investors, the next signal may therefore be less about whether Amazon keeps growing online sales and more about who controls the moment when the consumer decides what to buy. If AI agents capture that decision-making layer, Amazon could find itself defending an advertising business that has become too important to lose — even when the packages keep arriving at the door.
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