LeBron's Polymarket Deal Raises Questions for the NBA

The NBA told federal regulators this year that prediction markets on player moves should be prohibited. One such market on LeBron James‘ next team drew more than $46 million in trading on Polymarket before he chose the Philadelphia 76ers.

Polymarket is now paying James $15 million a year to promote the platform, Front Office Sports reported.

There is no evidence James traded on the market, shared information with traders or violated NBA rules.

NBA Warned About Player-Move Markets

In an April filing, the NBA urged federal regulators to prohibit prediction markets on player transactions, warning they could be vulnerable to manipulation and the misuse of confidential information.

James’ next-team market shows why the league was worried. Traders were wagering on a decision James himself would ultimately make, while he and a small circle around him were likely to know far more than the public about where his free-agency talks stood.

The NBA’s filing addressed CFTC-regulated exchanges, while James’ market ran on Polymarket International, which is blockchain-based. But the league also warned that such markets, which may lack traditional know-your-customer identity checks, pose “severe challenges” to ensuring players and team personnel are not engaged in prohibited trading.

$46 Million Traded on LeBron’s Decision

Polymarket traders spent weeks trying to predict James’ next team, with Miami, Cleveland and Golden State all favored at different points. Philadelphia was priced at a 9% chance shortly before James chose the 76ers.

The market ultimately recorded $46.23 million in trading.

James announced his Polymarket partnership on Sept. 5. His work will focus on football rather than basketball, just as his previous endorsement deal with DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) did. Under NBA rules, players can promote betting on non-NBA sports, helping explain why an NBA star’s gambling endorsements have centered on football.

NBA Rules Appear to Allow It

The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement permits players to promote gaming companies through general brand endorsements or by promoting betting on non-NBA sports. Compensation cannot depend on NBA wagering or game outcomes.

The NBA’s regulatory filing, however, shows its concern extends beyond whether players themselves bet. The league has argued that markets on player transactions create integrity risks even as its own rules allow players to have commercial relationships with companies that offer them.

The NBA and Polymarket did not immediately respond to Benzinga’s requests for comment.

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