Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are trending slightly lower early Thursday as investors digest hawkish inflation survey data, rising Treasury yields, and reports that the Pentagon is preparing for potential military strikes in Iran.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is nearly evenly split for the Oct. 8 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 8?” contract currently reflects a 52% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing negative index futures against rising energy costs, surging yields, and ongoing corporate developments:

• Lower Index Futures: Equity futures point to a muted red open across major benchmarks. Dow Jones futures dropped 0.14%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.05%. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.06%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked down 0.17%.
• Geopolitics & Rising Oil: Tensions are escalating rapidly as the Pentagon has reportedly instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations for potential major combat operations in Iran, targeting nuclear and energy infrastructure before the upcoming U.S. midterms. The White House stated that President Donald Trump “holds all the cards.” In response to the heightened risk, energy prices surged; Brent crude climbed 2.29% to $102.49 a barrel, while WTI crude jumped 1.96% to $90.01 a barrel.
• Treasury Yields & SpaceX Debt: The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% intraday, driven by a hot New York Fed consumer inflation survey (which saw one-year inflation expectations jump from 3.6% to 3.9%) and news that Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is seeking a massive $40 billion in financing—including $30 billion in investment-grade debt—to purchase Nvidia chips.
• Earnings & Eco Data: Thursday’s earnings docket includes reports from PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP), Novagold Resources Inc. (NYSE:NG), Nurix Therapeutics Inc. (NYSE:NRIX), and Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY). On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by August wholesale trade data at 10:00 a.m. ET. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will also deliver a speech at 1:40 p.m. ET.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

With the 10-year Treasury yield spiking back up and Ray Dalio renewing his AI bubble warning, the “higher-rates side of the tug-of-war punched back,” according to tech strategist Luke Lango. However, Lango views the current weakness as a buying opportunity.

He noted that while consumers expect a tougher year ahead based on the NY Fed survey, five-year inflation expectations remained anchored at 3%, preventing long-term expectations from becoming unmoored.

Furthermore, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) are both signaling that demand will continue to exceed supply into 2027 and 2028, suggesting that AI infrastructure spending remains robust enough to justify selective market exposure rather than an exit.