Anthropic is facing a widening valuation challenge as the artificial intelligence (AI) company inches towards a potential $2 trillion Nasdaq debut amid mounting investor scrutiny, according to a Wall Street expert.
Independent research firm New Constructs described Anthropic’s potential offering as the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026" in a Tuesday report. The firm estimated Anthropic’s value at $150 billion, dramatically below the potential $2 trillion market capitalization, according to CNBC.
The firm said Anthropic would need profits equal to twice Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s trailing four-quarter total to support that valuation. New Constructs cited Anthropic’s rising operating losses and competition from open-source AI models, writing, "We don’t think Anthropic has a viable business."
New Constructs also argued that the offering would mainly create liquidity for Anthropic’s Wall Street backers rather than generate wealth for public-market investors. The firm also warned that the IPO could present Wall Street with an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility."
Anthropic’s Valuation Faces Reality Check
Anthropic’s massive valuation has drawn scrutiny from several experts.
On Wednesday, "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry highlighted the valuation gap between Anthropic and established S&P 500 companies, noting that Anthropic’s valuation equals the combined value of 78 S&P 500 companies, including top household brands and established industrial firms.
Notably, the company was valued at $965 billion in a May funding round and confidentially filed for an IPO. Revenue surged to $4.6 billion in 2025, but its operating loss widened to $8.06 billion, while its roughly $42 billion net loss was largely driven by an accounting charge, according to Reuters.
Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion valuation would require exceptional revenue growth and margin expansion, Dr. Chan Ahn, a former Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executive, told Benzinga. He estimates Anthropic would need about $725 billion in annual revenue by 2036 to support that valuation at a 10% cost of equity, 25% free cash flow margin and a 25x terminal multiple. At a 13% discount rate, the required revenue rises to roughly $950 billion. Ahn also says investors should consider lessons from Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) transition from private-market darling to public company.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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