PepsiCo Is Handing Market Share to Coca-Cola, Analyst Warns

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) stock climbed nearly 2% Thursday as investors shifted toward defensive consumer staples stocks amid broader market weakness. The Nasdaq fell 1.50%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.66%.

The consumer staples sector gained 2.14%, making it the second-best performing sector. Meanwhile, technology stocks fell 1.98%, reflecting a shift away from growth stocks.

PepsiCo’s Beverage Struggles

Coca-Cola also gained following third-quarter earnings results from rival PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP).

PepsiCo reported a 5.6% increase in quarterly revenue to $25.27 billion, beating estimates of $24.96 billion. Core earnings of $2.34 per share also exceeded expectations of $2.29.

However, PepsiCo lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to $8.34 to $8.43 per share, below analysts’ estimate of $8.55.

More importantly for Coca-Cola, PepsiCo acknowledged that its North American carbonated soft drink business underperformed the broader market.

Organic revenue in PepsiCo’s North American beverage division also slipped slightly as lower sales volumes offset pricing gains.

Separately, Reuters reported that RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi expects PepsiCo to continue losing beverage market share to Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP).

Modi believes PepsiCo may need to fully refranchise its beverage operations to prevent further market-share losses. PepsiCo’s struggles could benefit Coca-Cola as investors anticipate potential market-share gains.

Coca-Cola Technical Analysis

Coca-Cola shares remain above their longer-term moving averages, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact.

The stock is trading near its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $87.43 and below its 50-day SMA of $87.99. However, it remains above its 100-day SMA of $84.88 and 200-day SMA of $80.34.

The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 52.54, indicating neutral momentum without clear overbought or oversold conditions.

Traders are watching resistance near $90.50 and support around $85.50. A sustained move above the 50-day SMA could strengthen the near-term outlook.

Earnings and Analyst Outlook

Coca-Cola is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings Oct. 27.

Analysts expect earnings of 88 cents per share, up from 82 cents a year earlier. Revenue is projected to reach $12.90 billion, compared with $12.46 billion last year.

The stock carries a consensus Buy rating, with an average price forecast of $94.77.

Wells Fargo lowered its price forecast to $90 on Oct. 5, while JPMorgan reduced its forecast to $95 on Sept. 28. Both firms maintained Overweight ratings. Meanwhile, Argus Research raised its price forecast to $97 on July 30 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Coca-Cola Benzinga Edge Rankings

KO’s Benzinga Edge Rankings show strength in growth, quality and momentum.

The stock has a growth score of 97.58, a quality score of 93.34 and a momentum score of 80.82.

However, its value score of just 5.57 suggests the stock trades at a relatively expensive valuation. Its price-to-earnings ratio stands at approximately 25.8.

ETF Exposure

KO is a major holding in several consumer staples ETFs, including the VanEck Consumer Staples TruSector ETF (NASDAQ:TRUO), with an 8.61% weighting; the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLP), at 7.45%; and the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE:VDC), at 8.53%.

These holdings expose KO to broader investor flows into defensive consumer staples funds.

Coca-Cola Price Action

Coca-Cola shares were up 1.87% at $87.43 at the time of publication Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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