Starbucks Corp.’s (NASDAQ:SBUX) reported interest in acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) could put the spotlight on a broader restaurant consolidation trade — and the ETFs that offer exposure to the companies that could benefit if deal activity spreads across the industry.
• Starbucks stock is showing notable weakness. Why are SBUX shares down?
Starbucks has explored a potential takeover of Chipotle, according to the Financial Times, with advisers reportedly involved in discussions. A deal would combine two major restaurant brands and create a company with roughly $50 billion in annual sales.
Chipotle, valued at nearly $39 billion, jumped about 6% following the report, while Starbucks fell roughly 3%.
If the reported talks progress, the potential deal could also put a spotlight on other restaurant stocks that may become more attractive to strategic buyers or benefit from a broader wave of consolidation. That makes diversified ETFs with meaningful exposure to restaurant operators a useful way to track the potential spillover from the Starbucks-Chipotle story.
Investors do not have a dedicated restaurant ETF to turn to anymore. The AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF closed in May, leaving broader consumer, leisure and food funds as the main vehicles for diversified restaurant exposure. That makes the holdings of these ETFs particularly relevant as investors assess which restaurant stocks could benefit if M&A activity accelerates.
VCR: The Broadest Restaurant M&A Basket
The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:VCR) offers one of the clearest ways to play the theme. About 10% of its portfolio is tied to restaurant-related stocks, including McDonald’s Corp (NYSE:MCD) at 2.9%, Starbucks at 1.8%, Chipotle at 0.8% and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:YUM) at 0.7%. The fund has $6.6 billion in assets and charges just 0.09%.
XLY: Heavy Exposure to Restaurant Giants
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLY) has Starbucks at 2.97% and McDonald’s at 4.20%, along with DoorDash, Inc (NASDAQ:DASH) at 1.96%. Its broader consumer-discretionary portfolio makes it a less concentrated restaurant bet, but any sector-wide M&A repricing could still benefit its restaurant holdings.
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PEJ: A More Restaurant-Heavy Alternative
The Invesco Leisure and Entertainment ETF (NYSE:PEJ) allocates 59.3% to hotels, restaurants and leisure. Starbucks is its largest holding at 5.2%, while restaurant names including Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE), Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE:QSR) and BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (NYSE:BJ) are also among its holdings.
FDIS and FTXG: Additional Food-and-Consumer Exposure
The Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (NYSE:FDIS) holds Starbucks at 1.77% and Chipotle at 0.72%, while First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (NASDAQ:FTXG) offers exposure to Starbucks and restaurant-related companies such as Restaurant Brands International and BJ’s Restaurants.
The Bottom Line
The Starbucks-Chipotle report does not mean a restaurant M&A wave is coming. But it gives investors a fresh reason to watch an industry where there is no longer a dedicated restaurant ETF.
If consolidation becomes a bigger theme, diversified funds such as VCR, XLY and PEJ could offer a way to capture the trade without trying to predict the next takeover target.
Photo: John Hanson Pye / Shutterstock
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