Jim Cramer warned investors not to overreact to oil’s latest decline after President Donald Trump announced what he called an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, arguing that war-related supply risks still support crude prices near $100 a barrel.
Cramer Warns Against Ceasefire-Driven Oil Moves
"Oil falling on an energy cease fire. We have seen these again and again and we are fooled again and again," Cramer wrote in an X post late on Sunday. "As long as there is a war on oil will stay clustered around $100."
Brent crude fell about 2% toward $103 a barrel Monday after Trump unexpectedly said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop targeting energy infrastructure. Reuters reported Moscow had not immediately confirmed the agreement, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was still waiting for details. Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities continued after Trump’s announcement.
Cramer has warned before that diplomatic headlines can quickly push oil prices lower even when supply remains tight. Oil previously fell after ceasefire signals when Brent was above $100. Cramer has also called oil prices and interest rates “convenient excuses” for investors to sell semiconductor stocks, arguing that the market was using those concerns to question data-center spending.
Middle East Risks Keep Supply Tight
Middle East risks remain the bigger problem. The International Energy Agency says the conflict has produced the largest oil-supply disruption in global market history, with roughly 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of petroleum products normally moving through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Those flows have slowed sharply, helping push crude above $100.
Although Middle East crude flows recently climbed above pre-conflict levels, tanker attacks and wider Gulf fighting continue. Reuters reported Monday that Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and tanker incidents kept investors on edge even as crude eased.
At the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures expiring in December were up 0.9% to $105.66 per barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures expiring in November climbed 0.87% to $92.67.
Brent tracker, United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE:BNO) was 1.52% higher in premarket trading on Monday, whereas WTI tracker United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) rose 1.13%.
Emergency Releases Aim To Ease Pressure
The IEA said last week that member countries had already released about 325 million barrels of emergency oil stocks and were prioritizing diesel releases because markets remain tight. Another 100 million barrels could still reach the market under the March emergency action.
Cramer has also linked the Middle East escalation to broader market stress. He recently warned that additional U.S. troop deployments could make a bond rally harder.
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